Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster boxes using live TCGplayer market prices. Updated daily, this calculator uses official slot odds, rarity weighting, and treatment mappings to model realistic pack value projections.

Each sealed box is modeled using the pack and card-slot configuration listed below, including product-specific bonus-sheet or treatment behavior where applicable. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Modern Horizons 3 is themed as a direct-to-Modern power set, built around high-synergy cards, returning fan-favorite concepts, and complex build-arounds aimed at experienced constructed and limited players.

36 packs / box 14 cards / pack (game cards) New‑to‑Modern (N2M): 1/pack SPG: 1/64 replaces a common Land slot: 50% common • 20% basic (NF) • 13.3% basic (foil) • 10% Eldrazi basic (NF) • 6.7% Eldrazi basic (foil) Rare slot: 79.8% R • 13.0% M • 2.1% retro R/M • 5.1% borderless R/M Excludes MH3 #447–467 (CB‑only), #468+ & “z”, and serialized/textured/etched/ripple variants; M3C ≤16; Snow‑Covered Wastes = #229 main uncommon, #439 retro, #309 full‑art wildcard

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Content Snapshot

Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 14 cards / pack (game cards)
Product detail: New‑to‑Modern (N2M): 1/pack
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Modern Horizons 3 Play Booster is modeled with 14 game-card slots.

Commons6 cards / pack

Pool: 90 modeled card outcomes.Common block: 5.9844 expected / pack.Common block Special Guests replacement: 0.0156 expected / pack (1.56% expected per pack).

Uncommons2.4 expected / pack

Pool: 81 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.4 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Land or common slot: 1 expected / pack.

Wildcard1 card / pack

Pool: 404 modeled card outcomes.Wildcard slot: 1 expected / pack.

Traditional foil wildcard slot1 card / pack

Pool: 404 modeled card outcomes.Traditional foil wildcard slot: 1 expected / pack.

Rare / mythic slot1 card / pack

Pool: 184 modeled card outcomes.Rare / mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.

Uncommon DFC share0.6 expected / pack

Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon DFC share: 0.6 expected / pack (60% expected per pack).

New-to-Modern slot0.999 expected / pack

Pool: 57 modeled card outcomes.New-to-Modern slot: 0.999 expected / pack (99.9% expected per pack).

Future EV calculations should draw all 14 game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic after the draw.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Included setsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

MH3 — Normal (nonfoil) MH3 — Normal (foil) MH3 — Borderless (incl. foil) MH3 — Retro frame (incl. foil) MH3 — New‑to‑Modern slot (incl. foil) M3C — Commander mythics (wildcard/foil, ≤16) SPG — Special Guests (nonfoil only) MH3 — Full‑art Eldrazi basics (incl. foil) MH3 — Regular basic lands (incl. foil)

Prices: local TCGCSV snapshots. Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green; EV uses Sift only if toggled.

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from local TCGCSV snapshots. EV applies Sift only after each pack's contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if toggled on, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.

Use Sift (≥) in EV

Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

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Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV × 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	—	—	—

Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: As an eBay Partner Network affiliate, The Expected Value may earn from qualifying purchases. Some marketplace links are affiliate links.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break‑even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	—	—	—	Loading…
TCGplayer	—	—	—	Loading…
eBay	—	—	—	Loading…
Amazon	—	—	—	Loading…

How to read this: Think of P/E as “dollars paid for each $1 of expected card value.” 1.00x means the box price and the current mid EV are the same. 1.25x means you are paying $125 for each $100 of expected value. 0.90x means you are paying $90 for each $100 of expected value. Lower is cheaper relative to EV, but EV is only an average estimate, not guaranteed profit.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —

Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Find cards

Showing all cards

Modeled card rows with set, treatment, value, seller fees, and average boxes per copy.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total (Expected / box) — included sets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total (Expected / box) — all modeled rows (game cards)							0.00
Gap to 504 cards/box							0.00

Expected / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift & set toggles; exclude non‑game items)